Predicting coronary heart disease in middle-aged and older persons. The Framington study

T. Gordon, W. P. Castelli, M. C. Hjortland, W. B. Kannel and T. R. Dawber

Of 1,025 men and 1,445 women, aged 49 to 82 years, who were free of coronary heart disease (CHD), 79 men and 63 women subsequently had CHD. Using a risk function based on cholesterol in the high density and low density lipoproteins, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular hypertrophy, and diabetes, less than 2% of the subsequent CHD cases were found in the lowest decile of risk, whereas 25% of the cases for men and 37% for women were found in the highest decile. Predictability held for each specific age group. This predictability was at least as good as that obtained by the usual CHD risk profile at younger ages.

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