The future of pediatrics. Implications of the changing environment of medicine. Council on Long Range Planning and Development in cooperation with the American Academy of Pediatrics
We present the results of an environmental analysis by the American Medical
Association Council on Long Range Planning and Development to determine the
key factors that are likely to affect the pediatric specialty in the
future. Three factors were identified that are particularly salient to
future pediatric practice: demographic trends, decisions by third-party
payers, and public attitudes toward services for children. Less than half
as many children per pediatrician is predicted for the year 2000 compared
with 1970. Pediatricians are likely to face future constraints on
reimbursement, particularly for cognitive services and for providing care
to the growing number of children in poverty. One moderating effect may be
laws enacted at the state or federal level mandating basic insurance
coverage for child health supervision services. The public interest in
children's services will influence future access to pediatric care for
children and the compensation that pediatricians receive for children in
poverty. In light of these issues, organized medicine may seek means to
adjust to and also to shape the environment in which pediatric practice is
to occur in the future.
