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George F. Lemp, DrPH; Susan F. Payne, MA; George W. Rutherford, MD; Nancy A. Hessol, MSPH; Warren Winkelstein, Jr, MD; James A. Wiley, PhD; Andrew R. Moss, PhD; Richard E. Chaisson, MD; Robert T. Chen, MD; David W. Feigal, Jr, MD; Pauline A. Thomas, MD; David Werdegar, MD

JAMA. 1990;263(11):1497-1501.

Abstract
To develop a model for predicting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) morbidity in San Francisco, Calif, through June 1993, we combined annual human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion rates for homosexual and bisexual men and for heterosexual intravenous drug users with estimates of the cumulative proportion of the population with AIDS by duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection and with estimates of the size of the at-risk populations. We projected AIDS mortality by applying Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival time following diagnosis to the projected number of cases. The median incubation period for AIDS among homosexual and bisexual men infected with the human immunodeficiency virus was estimated to be 11.0 years (mean, 11.8 years; 95% confidence interval, 10.6 to 13.0 years). The model projects 12 349 to 17 022 cumulative cases of AIDS in San Francisco through June 1993, with 9966 to 12 767 cumulative deaths.

(JAMA. 1990;263:1497-1501)

Author Affiliations
From the AIDS Office (Drs Lemp, Rutherford, and Chen and Mss Payne and Hessol) and the Office of the Director (Dr Werdegar), Department of Public Health, City and County of San Francisco, Calif; the School of Public Health (Dr Winkelstein) and the Survey Research Center (Dr Wiley), University of California, Berkeley; the Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Drs Rutherford, Moss, and Feigal) and Medicine (Drs Chaisson and Feigal), University of California, San Francisco; and the AIDS Program, New York City (NY) Department of Health (Dr Thomas). Dr Chaisson is now with the Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Md. Dr Chen is now with the Division of Immunization, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, Ga.

Footnotes
Presented in part at the Fourth International Conference on Acquired Imunodeficiency Syndrome, Stockholm, Sweden, June 15,1988.

Reprint requests to AIDS Office, San Francisco Department of Public Health, Suite 500, 25 Van Ness Ave, San Francisco, CA 94102 (Dr Lemp).

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