Projections of AIDS morbidity and mortality in San Francisco
G. F. Lemp, S. F. Payne, G. W. Rutherford, N. A. Hessol, W. Winkelstein Jr, J. A. Wiley, A. R. Moss, R. E. Chaisson, R. T. Chen, D. W. Feigal Jr and al. et
AIDS Office, Department of Public Health, City and County of San Francisco, Calif 94102.
To develop a model for predicting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)
morbidity in San Francisco, Calif, through June 1993, we combined annual
human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion rates for homosexual and
bisexual men and for heterosexual intravenous drug users with estimates of
the cumulative proportion of the population with AIDS by duration of human
immunodeficiency virus infection and with estimates of the size of the
at-risk populations. We projected AIDS mortality by applying Kaplan-Meier
estimates of survival time following diagnosis to the projected number of
cases. The median incubation period for AIDS among homosexual and bisexual
men infected with the human immunodeficiency virus was estimated to be 11.0
years (mean, 11.8 years; 95% confidence interval, 10.6 to 13.0 years). The
model projects 12,349 to 17,022 cumulative cases of AIDS in San Francisco
through June 1993, with 9,966 to 12,767 cumulative deaths.
