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Farr's Law Applied to AIDS Projections
Dennis J. Bregman, PhD;
Alexander D. Langmuir, MD, MPH
JAMA. 1990;263(11):1522-1525.
Abstract
Farr's Law of Epidemics, first promulgated in 1840 and resurrected by Brownlee in the early 1900s, states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a normal bell-shaped curve. We applied this simple law to the reported annual incidence of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States from 1982 through 1987. The 6 years of incidence data closely fit a normal distribution that crests in late 1988 and then declines to a low point by the mid-1990s. The projected size of the epidemic falls in the range of 200 000 cases. A continuing incidence of endemic cases can be expected to emerge, but we believe it will occur at a low level.
(JAMA. 1990;263:1522-1525)
Author Affiliations
From the Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.
Footnotes
Reprint requests to Division of Biometry, PMB-B101, University of Southern California, 1420 San Pablo St, Los Angeles, CA 90033 (Dr Bregman).
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