No evidence of an emerging physician surplus. An analysis of change in physicians' work load and income
W. B. Schwartz and D. N. Mendelson
Department of Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02111.
Analysis of physicians' work patterns and income between 1982 and 1987
provides strong evidence that the demand for physicians' services has risen
at least as quickly as physician supply. Aggregate hours spent by US
physicians who provide patient care rose by 21%, and aggregate real net
income rose by more than 30% during a period in which the supply of
physicians grew by only 16%. The aggregate number of visits rose by only
9%, indicating that the time spent per patient encounter rose sharply,
presumably as a result of technological change and the increased complexity
of care. Recently released data for 1988 are consistent with these trends.
Our findings are inconsistent with the prediction by the Graduate Medical
Education National Advisory Committee that there would be a large physician
surplus by the year 1990. Moreover, if the upward trend in demand for
physicians' services continues, as seems probable, a physician surplus
should not develop in the foreseeable future. Only extensive rationing of
beneficial services would be expected to alter this projection.
