Objectives.
—To determine if alcoholic men who achieved stable abstinence experienced fewer deaths than those who relapsed and to develop a model predictive of premature mortality.
Design.
—A cohort of alcoholic men recruited into a prospective study of neurocognitive effects of alcoholism was followed up from 1 through 11 years. A demographically equated group of nonalcoholic men was also followed up. Alcoholics were classified as stable abstainers or relapsers.
Setting.
—Alcoholics were patients or ex-patients from a Department of Veterans Affairs Alcoholism Treatment Program and/or members of local chapters of Alcoholics Anonymous.
Participants.
—There were 234 alcoholic men who met the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, criteria for alcohol dependence. Follow-up status regarding relapse and mortality was obtained for 199 alcoholic subjects (85%). Of these, 101 had relapsed and 98 had abstained. Ninety-eight nonalcoholic controls equated for age, education, and sex also participated. Mortality status was obtained for 92 subjects in this group (94%).
Exclusions.
—Major medical and psychiatric illness and history of nonalcoholic drug abuse.
Main Outcome Measure.
—Death during a follow-up period of 1 through 11 years. Death was ascertained through the National Death Index, the California State Department of Health and Vital Statistics, the State Department of Motor Vehicles, and through personal contact with informants, relatives, and significant others of the subjects.
Results.
—There were 19 deaths among relapsed alcoholics compared with the expected number of 3.83 (99% confidence interval (CI), 9.64 to 33.38). Among abstinent alcoholics there were four deaths (expected = 3.21; 99% Cl, 0.67 to 12.59). The standardized mortality ratio for relapsed alcoholics was 4.96, which significantly exceeded the expected ratio (P<.001), whereas the standardized mortality ratio for abstinent alcoholics (1.25) was indistinguishable from the expected. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to determine if any of several demographic, medical, cognitive, or drinking history variables (in addition to relapse) helped predict mortality among alcoholics. Only relapse was significantly related to increased mortality (
2 = 9.15, P =.003).
Conclusions.
—Alcoholic men who achieve stable abstinence do not differ from nonalcoholic men in mortality experience; however, alcoholics who relapse die at a rate 4.96 times that of an age-, sex-, and race-matched representative sample from the US Bureau of the Census.
(JAMA. 1992;267:668-672)
