Transfer of technology from statistical journals to the biomedical literature. Past trends and future predictions
D. G. Altman and S. N. Goodman
Medical Statistics Laboratory, Imperial Cancer Research Fund, London, England.
OBJECTIVE--To investigate the speed of the transfer of new statistical
methods into the medical literature and, on the basis of current data, to
predict what methods medical journal editors should expect to see in the
next decade. DESIGN--Influential statistical articles were identified and
the time pattern of citations in the medical literature was ascertained. In
addition, longitudinal studies of the statistical content of articles in
medical journals were reviewed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cumulative number of
citations in medical journals of each article in the years after
publication. RESULTS--Annual citations show some evidence of decreasing lag
times between the introduction of new statistical methods and their
appearance in medical journals. Newer technical innovations still typically
take 4 to 6 years before they achieve 25 citations in the medical
literature. Few methodological advances of the 1980s seem yet to have been
widely cited in medical journals. Longitudinal studies indicate a large
increase in the use of more complex statistical methods. CONCLUSIONS--Time
trends suggest that technology diffusion has speeded up during the last 30
years, although there is still a lag of several years before medical
citations begin to accrue. Journals should expect to see more articles
using increasingly sophisticated methods. Medical journals may need to
modify reviewing procedures to deal with articles using these complex new
methods.
