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Peter C. Albertsen, MD; James A. Hanley, PhD; Donald F. Gleason, MD, PhD; Michael J. Barry, MD

JAMA. 1998;280:975-980.

Context.— The appropriate therapy for men with localized prostate cancer is uncertain. Until results of clinical trials are available, men and their physicians need guidance.

Objective.— To estimate survival based on a competing risk analysis stratified by age at diagnosis and histologic findings for men diagnosed as having clinically localized prostate cancer and who were managed conservatively.

Design.— Retrospective cohort study.

Setting.— Connecticut Tumor Registry.

Patients.— A total of 767 men with localized prostate cancer diagnosed between 1971 and 1984, aged 55 to 74 years at diagnosis, either not treated or treated with immediate or delayed hormonal therapy, and followed up for 10 to 20 years after diagnosis.

Main Outcome Measures.— Estimates of the probability of dying from prostate cancer or other competing hazards.

Results.— Men with tumors that have Gleason scores of 2 to 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 to 10 face a 4% to 7%, 6% to 11%, 18% to 30%, 42% to 70%, and 60% to 87% chance, respectively, of dying from prostate cancer within 15 years of diagnosis depending on their age at diagnosis.

Conclusions.— Men whose prostate biopsy specimens show Gleason score 2 to 4 disease face a minimal risk of death from prostate cancer within 15 years of diagnosis. Conversely, men whose biopsy specimens show Gleason score 7 to 10 disease face a high risk of death from prostate cancer when treated conservatively, even when cancer is diagnosed as late as age 74 years. Men with Gleason score 5 or 6 tumors face a modest risk of death from prostate cancer that increases slowly over at least 15 years of follow-up.

From the Division of Urology, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington (Dr Albertsen); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Dr Hanley); and the General Medicine Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Dr Barry). Dr Gleason is retired from private practice in Minneapolis, Minn.

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