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Exploring the Epidemiology of Favorable Trends

Gordon S. Smith, MB, ChB, MPH; Jonathan Howland, PhD, MPH

JAMA. 1999;281:2245-2247.

	Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text and any section headings.

Over the past quarter century, fatality rates in many unintentional injury categories have declined dramatically, both in the United States and in other industrialized countries.¹ The largest decline in number of deaths has been from unintentional drownings, which declined from 5700 in 1986 to 3959 in 1996.^1-2 In contrast to other injuries, the causes for this decline are largely unexplained.

In any consideration of drownings, it is important to recognize that there are 2 distinct high-risk groups in the United States: children (both boys and girls) younger than 5 years and males aged 15 to 34 years. Despite the availability of effective interventions such as pool fencing and supervision, drowning rates have declined little among children and actually have increased among children younger than 1 year. Drowning rates by year of age are lowest at 10 years and then increase . . . [Full Text of this Article]

Author Affiliations: Center for Injury Research and Policy, The Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, Md (Dr Smith), and Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Mass (Dr Howland).

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