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To the Editor: Accurate forecasts of the future generalist physician workforce are important for policy makers in medical schools and government. The most commonly used annual indicator of primary care outcomes has been the percentage of physicians enrolled in first-year graduate medical education (GME) programs in the 3 generalist disciplines of family practice, internal medicine, and pediatrics.^1-2 Little information is available regarding the accuracy of first-year residency specialty choice in predicting subsequent primary care practice. However, since the rate of subspecialization is known to differ considerably across the 3 generalist disciplines, merely summing the number of young physicians entering generalist first-year programs is likely to overestimate the future number of primary care physicians.³

Methods

We undertook a study of 2548 medical school graduates from the classes of 1990-1992 at 6 Pennsylvania medical schools that participate in a statewide tracking system. We obtained information from the Association of American Medical Colleges regarding . . . [Full Text of this Article]

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