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  Vol. 289 No. 19, May 21, 2003 TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Estimating Deaths Due to Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text and any section headings.

To the Editor: Dr Thompson and colleagues1 presented a model that uses influenza and RSV surveillance data to estimate virus-associated mortality. The authors propose that this model replace Serfling-type models, which have been used for 40 years to estimate deaths attributed to influenza by subtracting a model-generated baseline from observed winter deaths.2-3

The model of Thompson et al averages 34 470 (range, 7608-68 328) total seasonal influenza-related deaths for 1976-1999. This average, much higher than previous reports (approximately 20 000; range, 0-40 000 for 1972-1992),3 suggests that the Serfling models underestimate the mortality burden and that the new model corrects this problem. In fact this is not the case. A Serfling-type model4 estimated an average of 37 500 (range 0-74 500) all-cause excess deaths for 1976-1999. Both models report an increase in influenza-related deaths in the 1990s, which for Serfling models is fully explained by a rapidly increasing population of very elderly Americans (for whom influenza-related . . . [Full Text of this Article]







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