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To the Editor: Dr Cooper and colleagues¹ reported that 54% of state medical society executives believed there to be a shortage of primary care practitioners. The next closest reported shortage area was for obstetrician/gynecologists (25%). Even medical school deans, who seem in a questionable position to estimate population needs, reported that primary care is the third leading shortage area, after anesthesiology and radiology. Despite their own results, the authors concluded that the country needs more specialists, on the basis of the combined percentages of a variety of speciality areas.

If the country is to strive toward the goals of Healthy People 2010, planning for the health work force will have to do more than rely on perceptions of experts and even the perceived demands of people. Estimates of needs and evidence about how best to meet them are required.

Barbara Starfield, MD, MPH, FRCGP; Christopher B. Forrest, MD, PhD
Department of Health Policy and Management
Johns Hopkins University
Baltimore, Md

1. Cooper RA, Stoflet SJ, Wartman SA. Perceptions of medical school deans and state medical society executives about physician supply. JAMA. 2003;290:2992-2995. FREE FULL TEXT

Letters Section Editor: Stephen J. Lurie, MD, PhD, Senior Editor.

JAMA. 2004;291:1696.