 |
|
Risk Stratification for In-Hospital Mortality in Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure
|
|
| Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text and any section headings. |
|
|
|
To the Editor: Dr Fonarow and colleagues1 estimate a risk model for in-hospital mortality in acutely decompensated heart failure using a large data set (>33 000 patients) and validate it on an equally large independent data set. However, their conclusion that a classification and regression tree (CART) model performs better than a linear logistic model in predicting the risk of death in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure is surprising. In the independent data set, the CART model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.668 compared with 0.757 for the logistic model. Although apparently modest, this represents a large difference in performance. A useless model would on average have an AUROC of 0.5. Subtracting 0.5 from the AUROC and considering a scale from 0 to 0.5 (the upper limit), the relative improvement offered by the logistic model is (0.257-0.168)/0.168 or 53%, which is considerable.
The authors . . . [Full Text of this Article]
Patrick Royston, BA, MSc, DSc
Patrick.Royston@ctu.mrc.ac.uk
Cancer Group
MRC Clinical Trials Unit
London, England
Douglas G. Altman, BSc, DSc
Centre for Statistics in Medicine
University of Oxford
Oxford, England
 CiteULike  Connotea  Del.icio.us  Digg  Reddit  Technorati  Twitter
What's this?
RELATED ARTICLES
Risk Stratification for In-Hospital Mortality in Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure--Reply
, , , , and
JAMA. ;293():2468-2468.
FULL TEXT
Risk Stratification for In-Hospital Mortality in Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure: Classification and Regression Tree Analysis
, , , , , and
JAMA. ;293():572-580.
FULL TEXT
|
