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Lawrence O. Gostin, JD

JAMA. 2006;295:554-556.

	Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text and any section headings.

Serious outbreaks of avian influenza A (H5N1) have occurred among birds in Asia, with cases now reported in Europe.¹ Although H5N1 is highly contagious among birds, it is rare in humans due to a significant species barrier.² As of January 7, 2006, 146 cases were reported with 76 deaths.³ Human-to-human transmission has occurred, but transmission to date has not continued beyond one person.

The prevalence of H5N1 is currently very low and pales in comparison with pandemics of human immunodeficiency virus, malaria, and tuberculosis. However, recent evidence that the 1918 "Spanish" flu was caused by an avian influenza virus lends credence to the theory that current outbreaks could have pandemic potential.^4-5 Extrapolating from the 1918 pandemic, which killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million people in a less-populated planet,⁶ modeling studies indicate that 500 000 to 1 million Americans could die, with tens of millions of . . . [Full Text of this Article]

Planning and Market Incentives

Author Affiliations: Center for Law and the Public's Health, Georgetown University, Washington, DC; and Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md.

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