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Joan Stephenson, PhD

JAMA. 2004;291:2534.

In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the plague bacterium (Yersinia pestis) circulates in wild burrowing rodents and is transmitted to humans via fleas. Now, an international team of researchers has found that outbreaks of plague in Kazakhstan can be predicted based on the fluctuations of populations of wild gerbil colonies (Science. 2004;304:736-738).

In Kazakhstan, outbreaks of plague can be predicted by the rise and fall of wild gerbil populations, the main reservoir host of plague. (Photo credit: Herwig Leirs, PhD, University of Antwerp)

The researchers analyzed field data collected between 1955 and 1996 by Soviet scientists who monitored populations of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), the main reservoir host in that region. They discovered that plague emerges in the gerbil colonies about 2 years after a peak in the population density of the animals, which live in stable burrow systems.

Plague surveillance in Kazakhstan has become increasing sporadic due to the high costs of bacteriological testing, the authors noted. But data on burrow occupancy rates are simple and cheap to collect and could be used to provide an early warning when plague risk is elevated and bacteriological testing of gerbils is warranted.

The results "raise hopes for the future of plague surveillance throughout central Asia," the researchers said.

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