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A Meta-analysis of Randomized Trials

A. Michael Lincoff, MD; Kathy Wolski, MPH; Stephen J. Nicholls, MBBS, PhD; Steven E. Nissen, MD

JAMA. 2007;298:1180-1188.

Context  Pioglitazone is widely used for glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, but evidence is mixed regarding the influence of medications of this class on cardiovascular outcomes.

Objective  To systematically evaluate the effect of pioglitazone on ischemic cardiovascular events.

Data Sources and Study Selection  A database containing individual patient-level time-to-event data collected during pioglitazone clinical trials was transferred from the drug's manufacturer for independent analysis. Trials were included if they were randomized, double-blinded, and controlled with placebo or active comparator.

Data Extraction  The primary outcome was a composite of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Secondary outcome measures included the incidence of serious heart failure. A fixed-effects approach was used to combine the estimates across the duration strata and statistical heterogeneity across all the trials was tested with the I² statistic.

Data Synthesis  A total of 19 trials enrolling 16 390 patients were analyzed. Study drug treatment duration ranged from 4 months to 3.5 years. Death, myocardial infarction, or stroke occurred in 375 of 8554 patients (4.4%) receiving pioglitazone and 450 of 7836 patients (5.7%) receiving control therapy (hazard ratio [HR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.94; P = .005). Progressive separation of time-to-event curves became apparent after approximately 1 year of therapy. Individual components of the primary end point were all reduced by a similar magnitude with pioglitazone treatment, with HRs ranging from 0.80 to 0.92. Serious heart failure was reported in 200 (2.3%) of the pioglitazone-treated patients and 139 (1.8%) of the control patients (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.14-1.76; P = .002). The magnitude and direction of the favorable effect of pioglitazone on ischemic events and unfavorable effect on heart failure was homogeneous across trials of different durations, for different comparators, and for patients with or without established vascular disease. There was no evidence of heterogeneity across the trials for either end point (I² = 0%; P = .87 for the composite end point and I² = 0%; P = .97 for heart failure).

Conclusions  Pioglitazone is associated with a significantly lower risk of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke among a diverse population of patients with diabetes. Serious heart failure is increased by pioglitazone, although without an associated increase in mortality.

Author Affiliations: Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio.

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