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Jeff C. Goldsmith, PhD

JAMA. 1986;256(24):3371-3375.

	Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text PDF and any section headings.

PREDICTING the future in an age of rapid social change is risky business. However, one thing can be confidently said about the American health care system in the year 2000: most of its ingredients—the patients, the professionals, the strains of scientific inquiry and technological development, and much of the capital—are already present. Scientific and technological developments have been extensively reviewed elsewhere¹; this article will speculate on the impact of demographics, changing financing systems, and medical care organization in shaping the future American health care provision system.

Demographics

Barring a major war or natural catastrophe, approximately three fourths of the population to be served at the dawn of the 21st century is already living (unpublished data, National Center for Health Statistics, 1984).² The US population currently alive may account for as much as 90% of the health care demand encountered by the early part of the next century. By . . . [Full Text PDF of this Article]

Author Affiliations
From Ernst & Whinney, Chicago.

Footnotes
Presented in part at the Medicine for the 21st Century Forum, cosponsored by the American Medical Association and the Annenberg Center for the Health Sciences, Rancho Mirage, Calif, Jan 8, 1986.

Reprint requests to 2475 Telegraph Rd, Bannockburn, IL 60015 (Dr Goldsmith).

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