
Tobacco: Promotion and Smoking-Reply
John P. Pierce, PhD;
Elizabeth Gilpin, MS;
David M. Burns, MD
University of California, San Diego
Donald Shopland
The National Cancer Institute Bethesda, Md
Michael Johnson, PhD
California Department of Health Sacramento
JAMA. 1992;267(24):3283-3284.
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In Reply.
—Mr Males takes issue with two of the three articles1,2 that addressed the effect of tobacco company advertising on the probability of minors starting to smoke. He argues, incorrectly, that our data indicate that the rate of initiation of smoking did not increase during the recent period of heavy advertising with the new tobacco campaign. He implies that without such evidence our findings will later prove to be overstated.
The key point of all three articles1-3 in JAMA was that the effectiveness of tobacco advertising would slow the rate of decline in the uptake of smoking. Indeed, a number of studies indicates that the decline in smoking initiation has slowed significantly in recent years.4 However, identification of a change in the rate of initiation in smoking from a tobacco industry campaign such as "Joe Smooth" probably will not be an immediate phenomenon. Nobody expects that
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