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Christian Wolter, MD
Königsbrunn, Germany

JAMA. 1993;269(4):472.

	Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text PDF and any section headings.

To the Editor.

—In their recent article, Rosenberg et al¹ used backcalculation methods to reconstruct human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence in subgroups of the population, and then compared the results with directly measured seroprevalence in selected sentinel populations. In this context, it should be noted that both techniques, ie, backcalculation and direct serosurveys, have different shortcomings. These must be addressed before comparing results of the techniques for the purpose of cross-validation.

Forecasts based exclusively on AIDS incidence data cannot produce good estimates of recent HIV incidence because of the virus' long and variable incubation period. On the other hand, direct serosurveys based on unlinked testing allow the assessing of trends in recent HIV prevalence but are restricted to readily accessible sentinel populations, which may be subject to selection bias (eg, patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics, pregnant women, or hospitalized patients).

Rosenberg et . . . [Full Text PDF of this Article]

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