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C. Fordham von Reyn, MD; Kathy C. Parsonnet, MEd, MPH; Jean E. Abramson, MSW, MAS
Dartmouth Medical School Lebanon, NH

Thomas T. Gilbert, MD
Brown University School of Medicine Providence, RI

Frederic E. Shaw, Jr, MD, JD; M. Geoffrey Smith, MD, MPH
New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services Concord

JAMA. 1993;270(13):1544-1545.

	Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text PDF and any section headings.

In Reply.

—Dr Shelly agrees with our use of the binomial distribution to calculate the maximum probability of HIV transmission from an infected surgeon to a patient. As he points out, however, an error was made in our calculation: the correct 95% CI for zero per 1174 patients is 0 to 255 transmissions per 100 000 patients. Drs Gracely, St. John, and Yan arrive at similar figures. However, it is important to point out that the observed rate of transmission in our study was 0%.

St. John and Yan suggest that our study may have underestimated the risk of HIV transmission. We believe our estimates were conservative. The surgeon may have been infected longer than we estimated: our risk exposure interview strongly suggested that he could not have been infected after 1978; he may have been infected before 1978. Furthermore, we did not use all operative procedures conducted by the . . . [Full Text PDF of this Article]

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