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Phillip R. Kletke, PhD
Department of Public Policy Studies American Medical Association Chicago, Ill

JAMA. 1995;273(2):111-112.

	Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text PDF and any section headings.

To the Editor.

—In Dr Weiner's recent analysis of the effects of health system reform on future physician workforce requirements,¹ he concluded that if there is universal insurance coverage and significant increases in managed care by the year 2000, there will be a surplus of 165000 patient-care physicians. However, Weiner's analysis does not indicate that there will be a physician surplus nearly as large in any case, regardless of whether any reform policies are implemented.

A thorough examination² of Weiner's assumptions and methods reveals that the growth of the physician population is the driving force behind the future physician surplus. This is not apparent in Weiner's analysis because he did not compare the results of his forecast for the reformed health care system with a baseline scenario that assumes the current health care delivery system remains at status quo—that is, with no change in insurance coverage or managed . . . [Full Text PDF of this Article]

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