Estimating Deaths Due to Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus
- Lone Simonsen, PhD;
- William C. Blackwelder, PhD
-
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
National Institutes of Health
Bethesda, Md
- Thomas A. Reichert, MD, PhD;
- Mark A. Miller, MD
-
Fogarty International Center
National Institutes of Health
Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text.
- KEYWORDS:
- influenza
- mortality
- respiratory syncytial viruses
To the Editor: Dr Thompson and colleagues1 presented a model that uses influenza and RSV surveillance data to estimate virus-associated mortality. The authors propose that this model replace Serfling-type models, which have been used for 40 years to estimate deaths attributed to influenza by subtracting a model-generated baseline from observed winter deaths.2-3
The model of Thompson et al averages 34 470 (range, 7608-68 328) total seasonal influenza-related deaths for 1976-1999. This average, much higher than previous reports (approximately 20 000; range, 0-40 000 for 1972-1992),3 suggests that the Serfling models underestimate the mortality burden and that the new model corrects this problem. In fact this is not the case. A Serfling-type model4 estimated an average of 37 500 (range 0-74 500) all-cause excess deaths for 1976-1999. Both models report an increase in influenza-related deaths in the 1990s, which for Serfling models is fully explained by a rapidly increasing population of …
